Thursday, April 10, 2025
Pre-market futures are down this morning, following one of the biggest one-day surges in market history yesterday. After a week of being “liberated” from tariff policy, President Trump decided to calm tensions for most of our trading partners with a 90-day pause on announced tariff measures. When was the last time you saw the Nasdaq gain +12% in a day?
Anyway, futures are down, but better after morning economic data was released an hour ahead of the opening bell:
CPI Drops Notably Month Over Month, Year Over Year
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March posted a negative headline, -0.1%, for the first time in nearly five years. This swings from an expected +0.1% and a previous month’s +0.2%, which itself was the lowest print since October of last year. Core CPI month-over-month — stripping away food and energy costs — buoyed back to +0.1%, as Energy fell -3.3% month over month.
Headline CPI year over year is known as the Inflation Rate, and this fell 40 basis points (bps) from the previous month to +2.4%, the lowest since multi-year lows reached in September of 2024. Core CPI year over year came in at +2.8%, which we haven’t seen since March of 2021. The Fed has been trying to drive inflation down to +2.0% for the past few years, and they quite simply have not been closer.
Thus, inflation looks to be on the wane, which is a good thing for those worried about higher prices. However, complicating matters are the tariff announcements, including a fresh +125% levied onto Chinese imports, effectively ending trade between the two major trading partners for the foreseeable future. Thus, what goods can be found here manufactured in China will almost certainly come with a higher price tag, which is counter to these inflation numbers.
Weekly Jobless Claims Stay True to Form
This morning’s Initial Jobless Claims came exactly in-line with the 223K expected, which remains in-range of 215-225K we’ve seen (save for one +243K outlier in late February), and which stays consistent with a healthy labor market overall. With DOGE layoffs commanding headlines over the past couple months, we had expected more new claims to show up in the data, but it’s not there.
Continuing Claims dipped back under 1.9 million on the prior-week’s revision, a move we’ve seen a handful of times going back to the final months of 2024. This morning’s longer-term jobless claims headline came in at 1.850 million, a continuing of the ping-pong moves this metric has provided: every time we nudge the 1.9 million level, we ebb back to the 1.85 million range.
The U.S. also counts Continued Jobless Claims among federal workers, which we’ve seen on the wane from a peak in mid-March. Today’s headline here is 7.72K federal employees having applied for longer-term unemployment, from 9.13K roughly a month ago. Back in mid-October of last year, we saw a near-term low of 3.82K filings among federal employees. One month into the Biden administration in February of 2021, we saw highs of 19.9K — an historic high — for some perspective.
Fed Minutes Yesterday Express Uncertainty
Overlooked in yesterday’s melee were the minutes to the latest FOMC meeting from March 18-19, where the Fed declined to move on interest rates for the third-straight month. Analysts were looking for signs the Fed would be sensitive to future tariff complications, and although tariffs were not cited directly, we saw some clear elements of concern:
Uncertainty around the economic outlook had increased among FOMC members, with risks of inflation ramping up somewhat. Meanwhile, employment was showing signs of weakening, with the Fed looking at “difficult tradeoffs” in the near future — all of which can be interpreted, especially in retrospect, with concerns over potential tariff policy. Markets initially moved downward on this release, but were completely eclipsed by the 90-day tariffs pause announced soon afterward.
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Image: Bigstock
CPI Falls, Pre-Markets Give Back Some Gains
Thursday, April 10, 2025
Pre-market futures are down this morning, following one of the biggest one-day surges in market history yesterday. After a week of being “liberated” from tariff policy, President Trump decided to calm tensions for most of our trading partners with a 90-day pause on announced tariff measures. When was the last time you saw the Nasdaq gain +12% in a day?
Anyway, futures are down, but better after morning economic data was released an hour ahead of the opening bell:
CPI Drops Notably Month Over Month, Year Over Year
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March posted a negative headline, -0.1%, for the first time in nearly five years. This swings from an expected +0.1% and a previous month’s +0.2%, which itself was the lowest print since October of last year. Core CPI month-over-month — stripping away food and energy costs — buoyed back to +0.1%, as Energy fell -3.3% month over month.
Headline CPI year over year is known as the Inflation Rate, and this fell 40 basis points (bps) from the previous month to +2.4%, the lowest since multi-year lows reached in September of 2024. Core CPI year over year came in at +2.8%, which we haven’t seen since March of 2021. The Fed has been trying to drive inflation down to +2.0% for the past few years, and they quite simply have not been closer.
Thus, inflation looks to be on the wane, which is a good thing for those worried about higher prices. However, complicating matters are the tariff announcements, including a fresh +125% levied onto Chinese imports, effectively ending trade between the two major trading partners for the foreseeable future. Thus, what goods can be found here manufactured in China will almost certainly come with a higher price tag, which is counter to these inflation numbers.
Weekly Jobless Claims Stay True to Form
This morning’s Initial Jobless Claims came exactly in-line with the 223K expected, which remains in-range of 215-225K we’ve seen (save for one +243K outlier in late February), and which stays consistent with a healthy labor market overall. With DOGE layoffs commanding headlines over the past couple months, we had expected more new claims to show up in the data, but it’s not there.
Continuing Claims dipped back under 1.9 million on the prior-week’s revision, a move we’ve seen a handful of times going back to the final months of 2024. This morning’s longer-term jobless claims headline came in at 1.850 million, a continuing of the ping-pong moves this metric has provided: every time we nudge the 1.9 million level, we ebb back to the 1.85 million range.
The U.S. also counts Continued Jobless Claims among federal workers, which we’ve seen on the wane from a peak in mid-March. Today’s headline here is 7.72K federal employees having applied for longer-term unemployment, from 9.13K roughly a month ago. Back in mid-October of last year, we saw a near-term low of 3.82K filings among federal employees. One month into the Biden administration in February of 2021, we saw highs of 19.9K — an historic high — for some perspective.
Fed Minutes Yesterday Express Uncertainty
Overlooked in yesterday’s melee were the minutes to the latest FOMC meeting from March 18-19, where the Fed declined to move on interest rates for the third-straight month. Analysts were looking for signs the Fed would be sensitive to future tariff complications, and although tariffs were not cited directly, we saw some clear elements of concern:
Uncertainty around the economic outlook had increased among FOMC members, with risks of inflation ramping up somewhat. Meanwhile, employment was showing signs of weakening, with the Fed looking at “difficult tradeoffs” in the near future — all of which can be interpreted, especially in retrospect, with concerns over potential tariff policy. Markets initially moved downward on this release, but were completely eclipsed by the 90-day tariffs pause announced soon afterward.
Questions or comments about this article and/or author? Click here>>